The Stock Market Is Not the Economy
The most common explanation for the apparent disconnect between the stock market and the economy is that the two aren’t as closely linked as you might assume. To start, consider that out of the 600,000 U.S. companies with more than 20 employees, only 3,600 are publically listed (or less than 1%).
The Stock Market Tries to Predict The Future
The math of price/earnings shows that stock investors are trying to predict a decade ahead, assuming they’re at least somewhat rational in aggregate. And the S&P 500 price action this year strongly suggests that investors are expecting the pandemic will only cause a quick dip in earnings, rather than a multi-year slump.
The Pandemic Is Good For The Big Names
It became quickly obvious to me (and many others) that the initial lockdown response to the pandemic would actually be a huge boon to companies that cater to stay-at-home activities, like shopping on Amazon and watching movies on Netflix.
Grab Bag of Other Explanations
Other popular claims for why the stock market is rationally ignoring the pandemic and economy include:
Conclusions
The market always seems to have a funny way of proving everyone wrong. When I first started to think about this post in early September, the stock market was at all-time highs. But in just the one month it took me to sit down and write this post, the S&P 500 declined by close to 10%!
Crashes and corrections are the price of admission to take part in one of the world's greatest wealth creators
A Fool since 2010, and a graduate from UC San Diego with a B.A. in Economics, Sean specializes in the healthcare sector and investment planning. You'll often find him writing about Obamacare, marijuana, drug and device development, Social Security, taxes, retirement issues and general macroeconomic topics of interest. Follow @AMCScam
Key Points
Everything from COVID-19 variants to politics and history are potential threats to the S&P 500's historic bounce from a bear market bottom.
2. Historically high inflation
Some level of inflation (i.e., the rising price of goods and services) is expected in a growing economy. However, the 6.2% increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers in October marked a 31-year high.
3. Energy price indigestion
Crude oil could also spell doom for Wall Street over the next three months.
4. Fed speak
The tone and actions of the Federal Reserve could also cause the stock market to crash over the next three months.
5. A debt ceiling impasse
Keeping politics out of your portfolio is generally a smart move. But every once in a while, politics can't be swept under the rug.
6. Margin debt
Generally speaking, margin debt -- the amount of money borrowed from a broker with interest to purchase or short-sell securities -- is bad news. Although margin can multiply an investors' gains, it can also quickly magnify losses.
Stock Market Uncertainty on Oil and Fed Policy
The price of oil is central to the impact of Russia’s war since crude prices drive up inflation and slow down the economy. What happens with the price of oil will also have a big impact on whether the Fed pursues aggressive interest rates hikes starting at the upcoming March FOMC meeting.
Global Leaders Talk Sanctions on Russia, NATO on High Alert
U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson wasted little time this morning saying that his government would impose its “largest ever” economic sanctions on Russia, including freezing the assets of all major Russian banks, limiting cash held by Russian nationals in U.K. banks and sanctioning more than 100 individuals and entities.
CPI Inflation Flashed Warning Signs for the Fed
The recent January CPI report indicated that prices rose 7.5% in January year over year, registering the highest annualized growth in CPI inflation since February 1982.
Explainer-What sanctions mean for Russia's debt markets and investors
Western capitals have started putting in place fresh restrictions on Russia's sovereign debt as they seek to ratchet up pressure on Moscow over the conflict with Ukraine. The United States and its allies introduced an initial round of sanctions after Russian President Vladimir Putin recognised two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine on Monday.
Chevron the only Dow stock gaining ground, as AmEx and Disney stocks lead the losers
Chevron Corp.'s stock is the only Dow Jones Industrial Average component gaining ground in premarket trading Thursday, as Dow futures tumbled in the wake of Russia's invasion Ukraine, while the other 29 components are falling by at least 1% and as much as 4.4%.
eBay Stock Dives As Muted Outlook, Fewer Users, Cloud Q4 Earnings Beat
Declining users and a muted near-term outlook has shares in online marketplace eBay falling sharply lower Thursday, despite better-than-expected holiday quarter profits.
Key Points
Although the stock market is a money machine over the long run, crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle.
The S&P 500's historic bounce from the March 2020 bottom could come to an abrupt halt this year
Since the benchmark S&P 500 ( ^GSPC -1.84% ) bottomed out in March 2020, investors have been treated to historic gains. It took less than 17 months for the widely followed index to double from its closing low during the pandemic.
1. The spread of new COVID-19 variants
Arguably the most glaring concern for Wall Street continues to be the coronavirus and its numerous variants. The unpredictability of the spread and virulence of new COVID-19 strains means a return to normal is still potentially a ways off.
2. Historically high inflation
In a growing economy, moderate levels of inflation (say 2%) are perfectly normal. A growing business should have modest pricing power. However, the 6.8% increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in November represented a 39-year high in the United States.
3. A hawkish Fed
A third reason the stock market could crash in 2022 is the Fed turning hawkish.
4. Congressional stalemates
As a general rule, it's best to leave politics out of your portfolio. But every once in a while, what happens on Capitol Hill needs to be closely monitored.
5. Midterm elections
Once again, politics isn't usually something investors have to worry about. However, midterm elections are set to occur in November, and the current political breakdown in Congress could have tangible implications on businesses and the stock market moving forward.
The Stock Market Is Not The Economy
Short-Term Earnings Aren’T That Important
The Stock Market Tries to Predict The Future
The Pandemic Is Good For The Big Names
It’S Bad For The Under-Represented
Grab Bag of Other Explanations
- Other popular claims for why the stock market is rationally ignoring the pandemic and economy include: Don’t Fight The Fed (or Congress) – Although it’s too soon to find conclusive statistics, it seems likely that the CARES Act and Federal Reserve programs in 2020 have helped the stock market along with the overall economy. As compared to the 2008 ...
Conclusions